What Will Justify $100 Price Estimate For Alibaba Group?

In our opinion, Alibaba will need to accelerate the growth in average spend per active buyer for its China marketplaces, expedite efforts to increase mobile monetization to desktop levels and substantially grow its international business. Note that our price estimate is based on a diluted share count which includes potential dilution due to the exercise of outstanding options and restricted stock units (RSUs). Overall, we value Alibaba's business at little over $200 billion.